Archive for January, 2010
Cost of Gold
The cost of gold is rising, and has been for the last 10 years consistently. This action confirms the current gold bull market (see the previous blog for 10 year spot chart). For individual buyers the cost of gold differentiates depending on what type of gold you buy. Whether you buy gold bullion coins or bars, or rare gold coins, these prices will vary greatly.
Currently the spot price of gold is at $1,175 per ounce. According to many experts this is a great value, because they believe gold will hit $2,000 per ounce this year. The spot price of gold is an indicator value, like crude oil is to gasoline, spot gold is to physical gold. Therefore the cost you pay for physical gold will be the spot price plus a premium. Typically the premium will be anywhere from $50 to $150 above the spot price.
Gold bullion coins cost more than gold bullion bars, due to manufacturing costs. Coins are struck multiple times and treated with more care than gold bars. Therefore if you are looking for the cheapest costing gold you should buy gold bars.
Rare gold coins cost more than bullion coins and bars. This type of gold can range in price from a few hundred dollars more than a bullion coin to seven figures. This is due to the rarity and quality of a particular coin. The more common and the lower the grade of a coin the lower the cost, the higher the grade and the rarer the coin, the higher the cost. This type of gold has benefits that extend beyond what bullion can provide. While rare gold coins have these added benefits they still have the intrinsic value of the gold itself, and history has shown that the value of gold has never been zero.
Figure out your goals and objectives, and then acquire the right type of gold to support those goals. The cost will vary, but this should not matter. It is more important to acquire the right type for you then to buy the cheapest gold.
Can Gold Ride out the Financial Storm
Gold bullion and rare gold coins is the perfect instrument for riding out any financial storm. Global debt crisis, banking failures, over printing of money/collapse of the dollar, inflation/hyperinflation, turmoil in stock markets are a few examples of when gold shines. Gold has been valuable to human being for over 5,000 years. Currencies have come and gone, civilizations have fallen and technology has advanced and throughout all of it gold has proven to retain its worth.
The main reason people buy gold is to diversify their portfolio against downturns in paper assets. For example, when the collapse of many big banks in the U.S. occurred at the end of 2008, gold went from around $725 per ounce to close to $925 per ounce, a 27% increase. In 1987 when the stock market crashed, the infamous Black Monday, gold shot up to $500 per ounce, which was the highest level since 1983.
Gold bullion is primarily a hedge against inflation. In 1910 one ounce of gold could buy roughly 222 loaves of bread. Today that same one ounce of gold can buy roughly 275 loaves of bread. The dollar however has lost 95% of its purchasing power. If you owned $100 worth of gold in 1910 (5 oz) it would be worth roughly $5,500 today. In comparison, if you had $100 dollars in 1910 it would be worth roughly $5 today. That is a pretty big difference.
There have been many financial and global crises over history, and yet gold has always survived as a safe haven. Therefore don’t you think that as we continue to go through this global financial crisis gold will continue to be a safe haven for your dollars?
On a side note, look at the chart below, for the last 10 years gold has been in a positive trend cycle. Does this look like a bubble formation? Absolutely not! It has accumulated approximately 17% per year, building support and resistance all along the way.
What to Buy, Gold Coins or Gold Bars
A very common question is always what form of gold should I buy. Before you can answer this question you must understand the different types of gold you can own (click on bullion in the next sentance and rare gold coins in the last paragraph to read about them first). You can buy gold bullion or you can buy rare gold coins. If you are convinced that bullion is the way to go then, in my opinion, you should buy the cheapest possible option available. That can change depending on supply and demand.
Bullion coins come in many possible options. They vary in country of origin and in size. Depending on market conditions one particular coin can be more readily available than another. For example, there have been times recently that American Eagles were very sought after and commanded a higher price than the Canadian Maple Leaf. Both represent one full ounce of gold, but because of supply and demand issues one cost more than the other.
Coins typically cost more to produce than bars. Therefore a bar of gold is typically cheaper to purchase than a coin of the same number of ounces. In addition, if you purchase a large number of ounces at a time (typically 50 or more) you get a price break. This works for coins or bars. If you are looking for the absolute cheapest way to own gold, then bars in larger ounce sizes are for you. If you are looking for something to barter with in the event of a dollar collapse, then coins of the smallest sizes are for you. If you are looking for beauty in addition to owning gold, then proof one ounce coins are for you.
This brings us to rare gold coins. Many rare gold coin owners acquire U.S. rare gold coins minted prior to 1933. They are minted in identical ounce sizes as American Eagles; however these coins offer many advantages above and beyond their bullion content. Advantages like privacy, exclusion from previous gold confiscations and performance over bullion gold make this form of gold the best way to own gold in many peoples’ eyes. If you are looking for beauty, privacy, historical significance and long-term performance, then this type of gold is for you. They are more expensive than gold bullion due to their performance over history, and depending on how rare a particular coin is, it can be worth millions. When buying this type of gold coin, you are buying more than just the gold content.
How to Invest in Gold
All portfolios need diversification. Diversification allows a portfolio to be well-rounded. While some assets in a portfolio go down others go up in order to offset those losses. This is the smart way to build for the future. The key is to acquire assets that are not closely correlated to each other, like gold and stocks, or gold and dollars.
People generally acquire gold in their portfolios in order to build in safety and stability. This is because when stocks fall dramatically more people flock to gold thus increasing the value of gold and offsetting losses. The same occurs when the dollar begins to fall. As the dollar losses value some of the increase in gold is due to the dollar falling, but most of the increase typically comes from predominant buying due to fear.
When acquiring any asset for diversification one should look into how that asset itself can be diversified. Stocks for example, can be bought in U.S. companies or foreign companies. Gold can also be diverse. There are two types of gold available; bullion and rare gold coins. Both will perform different tasks in a portfolio.
Bullion is typically used for pure asset protection. 1oz of gold today can buy roughly the same amount of goods that 1oz of gold could buy 100 years ago. Therefore it is known for keeping up with inflation. Also, in the event of a dollar collapse gold’s value would skyrocket.
Rare gold coins are typically used for asset protection plus growth. However inside of this asset class one can acquire coins that will perform differently. This is due to rarity factors. The rarer a coin is the better the opportunity for growth, and the more volatile. The less rare a coin is the more it will function like an asset protection type coin.
Once you have determined your goals and objectives with your portfolio, then you can decide what types of gold to acquire. Acquiring gold is smart, and history has proven its performance. Diversification is important in your portfolio and across asset classes.
Gold Bullion Coins
Gold Bullion Coins come in many shapes and sizes, from as small as 1/25oz to as large as 220 pounds. The 220 pound coin was minted in Canada and is worth millions of dollars, however most gold coins that people buy are 1oz or smaller. Many countries have a mint at which they produce their own gold bullion coins. Here is a rough list of gold bullion coins:
American Eagle
Australia Kangaroo
Austria Koronas
Austria Ducats
Austria Vienna Philharmonic
Canada Maple Leaf
Chile Peso
Chinese Panda
Colombia Peso
England Britannia
French Franc
Holland guilders
Hungary Koronas
Isle of Man Angel
Isle of Man Persian Cats
Italy Lire
Mexico Pesos
South Africa Krugerrand
Swiss Franc
These coins range in gold purity. For example, the American Eagle is 22 carats which is 90% gold and 10% of another metal for durability. The coin still contains 1 ounce of pure gold. The Canadian Maple Leaf on the other hand is 24 carats. It is still 1 ounce of pure gold therefore it is a smaller sized coin than the Eagle because it does not contain any other metal. The sizes of gold bullion coins vary for this reason.
As you can imagine, every coin has a different design and some are more beautiful than others, but for the most part this makes no difference on the value. A gold bullion coins value is determined by how much gold it contains. Therefore any common issue coins do not carry any collector premium. If you own a 1oz American Eagle then it is worth the spot price of gold plus a premium depending on supply and demand, and the particular broker/dealer you are working with.
Bullion coins can be acquired in a self-directed Gold IRA. In certain instances they are reportable to the IRS upon the sale of them and they are considered to be subject to confiscation by the government. With all of the upward predictions for 2010 that are coming out these coins could be worth much more in the future.
Gold Outlook for 2010
At the beginning of every year the “experts” come out with their predictions on the precious metals market. These predictions vary every year in their overall gold price target and timing, and should be taken as an estimate, a guide for your strategy. Never the less what is being predicted for 2010 is very exciting for those who own gold or may consider to buy gold coins this year.
James Turk
James Turk is well known for his predictions in the precious metals market. Since the 1970’s people have followed him religiously, in order to guide their decisions in the gold market. Mr. Turk got the price target for 2009 correct. He stated that gold would break $1,000 per ounce and hold above it into 2010. He is calling for gold to break $2,000 per ounce in 2010. The timing is not clear, just that it will break $2,000 this year. He also calls for a floor under gold of $1,050 per ounce, which is the price at which India bought 200 metric tonnes from the IMF at. He also states that we are in the second phase of a three phase bull market.
Rob McEwen
Rob McEwen is the chairman and CEO of U.S. Gold, a gold mining company. He was recently seen on Bloomberg and stated that he believes that gold will go to $2,000 per ounce this year and that it will go to $5,000 per ounce between 2012 and 2014. He states that this is due to the U.S. government printing dollars at an alarming rate and a lack of supply to meet worldwide demand.
Frank Holmes
Frank Holmes is the CEO of U.S. Global Investors. He states on Market Watch, that gold could break $2,300 per ounce which is its inflation adjusted high of $850 per ounce in 1980. He believes that this will be due to a shrinking supply of gold and worldwide inflationary pressures. He does not say exactly when this will occur, but that he believes that it will occur.
There are many more predictions that you can find if you search for them. Even Merrill Lynch is predicting higher gold prices for 2010. This is encouraging news for those that own gold or are considering entering the market today. If someone bought gold today at $1,133 per ounce and it went to $2,000 an ounce by the end of 2010, that would be an increase of 76%!
The Elusive Proof Gold Coins
Proof gold coins are among the rarest numismatic coins available on the market today. They offer a unique combination of beauty and extreme rarity. Because of their rarity they command attention and demand from well established collectors worldwide. This not only makes proof coins hard to come by, but also makes them very expensive. Some rare gold coins can easily run into the six figure range. Although there are some pleasing issues that exist for a few thousand dollars.
Proof gold coins were struck in the United States between 1820 and 1915 and promoted to collectors starting in 1858. Because they were not marketed to collectors until 1858 mintages prior to that year are very small and hard to find.
Proof gold coins are set apart from business strike coins by the care taken to mint each coin. Each coin is struck multiple times on high polished planchets, compared to only one time with business strike coins. This may not sound like a big deal, but it is an attempt by the most skilled engravers and pressmen to create a flawless coin of perfection. Gold is one of the softest metals further complicating the minting process. This factor in combination with extremely low mintages, sometimes only 50, makes finding pristine examples very difficult.
Because of this difficulty to locate proof gold coins, collectors sometimes wait years to find the coin they are looking for. Unlike business strike coins, proof coins were rare the day they were minted. With original mintages of around 50 examples, and typical survival rates of around 50%, a slight increase in demand can create dramatic run-ups in value. If you are enthralled with owning a significant piece of history, and admire beauty and craftsmanship, then owning proof gold coins might be the right fit for you.
1913 Liberty Head Nickel Sells for $3.7 Million
Earlier this year a very rare nickel sold at a Florida public auction to an east coast coin collector. The 1913 Liberty Head Nickel sold for $3.7 million! It is one of only five known to exist in that particular date and design. The coin was minted in Philadelphia with the Miss Liberty design.
The coin was once owned by an Egyptian King named King Farouk. It was also featured in a Hawaii Five-O episode in 1973.
The value of the rare coin didn’t breach the $1 million mark until 2003. This is an extreme example of how rare coins can perform over a long period time. Rare coins have been regarded for a long time for their performance, privacy and their historic immunity from confiscation. Check out this chart showing the performance of the Liberty Head Nickel over the past 67 years. What an amazing journey!
Rare Gold Coins Outperform Gold Bullion
Gold has been in a positive trend since 1999. We have seen gold come from $252 per ounce in 1999 to as high as $1,225 per ounce at the end of 2009. Over that 10 year period is a 386% gain. Over an even longer period of time we have seen gold come from $35 per ounce in 1970 to that same $1,225 mark in 2009. That is a 3,400% increase! But what have rare gold coins done over that same time frame?
According to PCGS, Mint State Rare Gold Coins have performed even better that gold bullion since 1970. On their site, a $1,000 acquisition of mint state rare gold coins in 1970 would be worth $114,489 today. That is an 11,348% increase! That means that rare gold coins have outperformed gold bullion close to 4 to 1 over the past 40 years.
There are a few factors as to why this has occurred. Gold bullion only has the value of the gold content itself. If you own a 1 ounce gold bullion coin, like an American Eagle, then it is worth 1 ounce of gold. Rare gold coins also posses the intrinsic value of gold. A $20 Liberty minted between 1849 and 1907 contains one ounce of gold, so therefore it will never be worth less than the gold content itself. However, rare gold coins also have value do to their quality and rarity. However, the main factor that contributes to their value is supply and demand forces. No one can mint coins prior to 1933, therefore supply is limited. As demand heats up, supply becomes tighter and the value goes up. Gold bullion is being mined everyday, therefore supplies are constantly increasing.
Quality and rarity of any particular coin play a large role in its specific value. The higher the quality the more valuable it will be. The same goes for rarity, the more scarce a coin is the more valuable it will be. Rarity is easily determined. PCGS keeps a population count for every coin ever minted in the U.S. in every grade. PCGS has also made grading simple. PCGS and NGC grade coins on a scale from 1-70, 70 being perfect condition. Where you find the performance is in the mint state category, which runs from 60 to 70.
You can see that if you have a high grade mixed in addition to a very rare coin the value would be very high compared to a coin that is of a lower grade and rarity. In fact one coin, the 1933 $20 Saint Gaudens, which was at the time considered to be the only one in existence, sold at auction for $7.5 million. Values range from a few thousand dollars per coin up to that amazing $7.5 million value. Buy rare gold coins.
Gold and the US Dollar
Gold and the U.S. Dollar were pegged for much of our history as a country. We started minting gold coins as currency in 1795, which were interchangeable into paper dollars. We stopped using gold coins as currency in 1933 when president Franklin Delano Roosevelt called in all gold bullion in order to revitalize the economy during the great depression. At the time of the confiscation gold was pegged to the dollar at $20 per ounce. After the confiscation was completed the government revalued gold at $35 per ounce, thus robbing the wealth of all paper dollar holders by 42%.
Gold remained pegged to the dollar at $35 per ounce until 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window and removed us from the gold standard all together. It should be noted that from 1933 to 1974 it was illegal to own gold bullion, but one could own numismatic gold as it was excluded from confiscation.
The dollar and gold were then allowed to free float as it does today. Some of the gains and losses in gold on a day-to-day basis can be attributed to the U.S. dollar but some of it comes from predominant buying and selling.
Gold and the dollar fluctuated in step with each other until June of 2005. Prior to this date if the dollar was down gold was up and vice versa. In June of 2005 gold and the U.S. dollar decoupled from each other, and since then gold and the dollar have risen and fallen together and sometimes moved in opposite directions. They are not directly tied to one another. However, if the dollar decreases in value, the gold price in terms of dollars will rise. For example, gold today is up $18.60 as of this writing, and the dollar is down .15 to 77.48. Out of the $18.60 increase, $2.10 is due to a declining dollar and $16.50 is due to predominant buying.
As time goes on we fully expect the dollar and gold to function as two separate currencies. However if the U.S. has to return to a gold standard, gold will once again be pegged to the dollar.