Archive for September, 2009

Buying Gold a Bargain

Tuesday, September 29, 2009 posted by Gold Coins Rare

“Gold, is a bargain, below $1000 an ounce…” Richard Russell Dow Theory Letters

I have written previously that if the Dow breaks below its November 20, 2008, 7552.29, it would be a sign of things to come, particularly if Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI), Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was to begin declining in a persistent way. The WLI had risen for four weeks in a row. It was a good sign and I was hoping for the best but then it declined for four weeks in a row. If this continues I would expect the Dow to slump below 7552.29 which would be a serious break down for the stock market and a signal of prolonged distress for the economy.

On Friday, February 13, the WLI was down for the fifth week in a row. I doubt that many people realize how important these next few weeks are going to be. We need to see the Dow and the WLI turn up in a persistent and pervasive way or things are going to begin to look even worse than they do now. If the WLI continues to decline I would expect to see the stock market decline in a decisive manner followed by a big dose of unemployment!

On Friday, the Dow was down 82.35 to close at 7850.41, only 298.12 points above its November 20, low. Gold was down $6.90 to close at $941.00. Gold is only $62 from its all time high set in March 2008, of $1003.00. Many experts believe that once gold breaks through this resistance level gold will be off to the races again.

In this weeks Barron’s, Sandra Ward interviewed Ray Dalio. Dalio, was one of the few who warned about the dangers of “excess financial leveraging.” His clients include world governments and central banks according the Barron’s article. Dalio believes that dollar devaluation is the only way out of this mess!

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READING THE TEA LEAVES – Gold Up Big

Friday, September 25, 2009 posted by Gold Coins Rare

Gold closed at $897.90, up $41.10. The dollar closed up 0.03 to close at 85.52. The Dow closed at 8077.56, down 45.24 and the Transports closed at 2965.89, down 66.71.
Ex-Fed Chairman, Paul Volcker was introducing Tim Geithner at the Senate Confirmation Hearing of Tim Geithner for Treasury Secretary. Of Course Geithner was the Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. I think what Volcker said was the story. Again, Volcker was the Federal Reserve Board Chairman from August 1979 thru August 1987. The Wikipedia had this to say about Volcker, “Volcker’s Fed is widely credited with ending the United States’ stagflation crisis of the 1970s. Inflation, which peaked at 13.5% in 1981, was successfully lowered to 3.2% by 1983.”

Again, I am more interested in what Voclker said, than I am Geithner’s appointment. Volcker said, “You know a good many years have past since I last appeared before this committee, but during all of that time, there’s never been a more critical time for the American economy and particularly for financial stability. That’s true just not in the United States but globally. To put it starkly, we are in a serious recession with no end clearly in sight. The financial system is broken. It is a serious obstacle to recovery. There is no escape from the imperative need for the Federal government to come to the rescue, to right the economic and financial ship. Over time the hard fact is that several trillions of dollars will be necessary to be committed in a combination of budgetary expenditures and various guarantee insurance programs and extensions of credit by the Federal Reserve. Obviously, commitments made of that magnitude raise very large questions. They are not only questions about avoiding waste of the tax payer’s money, important as that is. There are also risks of undermining confidence in the dollar and raising fears of future inflation, they need to be recognized.”

That was Volcker; let me tell you what I believe. I believe gold is going to discount (look into) future inflation, in other words the markets always look ahead, this is the big money and it always moves first. When it does, gold will be off to the races, BIG TIME! I also believe that the speculators will begin to turn to gold as they turned to the NASDAQ and internet stocks during the Dot.com bubble and as they did with housing and oil. In essence, what Volcker is saying and you have heard it for months now, is that the Fed and the Treasury are responding in unprecedented ways to stave off another Great Depression. Trillions are beginning injected into the financial system and the economy. Banks are being nationalized, our major car makers are being bailed out and the Banks appear to be in more trouble than they were a few months ago at the height of the crisis. This means banks are going to need even greater injections of money. There are also currency concerns all over the globe. This I believe will be good for gold!

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